All In or Out - Investments

Asset Management with Focus on Tactical Asset Allocation

		All In or Out - There is only one way to beat the market


	ALL IN or ALL OUT

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	Investment Concept

	- Investment Principles

	- Defining Moments

	- Stress Indicators

	- ETF Universe

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	Stress indicators
	The “ALL IN or ALL OUT" concept is based on 31 stress signals divided into six categories 1. Global Cyclicals (6) 2. Credit Spreads (4) 3. Interest Rate Curves (4) 4. Commodity Indicators (4) 5. Currency/Monetary Indicators (5) 6. Momentum Indicators (8)
	Two simple rules
	The "ALL IN or OUT" concept follows two simple rules 1. Stress signals 0-12-> ALL IN or 100% invested in equities 2. Stress signals >12-> ALL OUT or 0% invested in equities but in cash, bonds, gold and others
	Assumptions for the concept to hold
	-	The 12 most important markets (8 developed and 4 emerging markets) combine over 80% of total global GDP. Whatever happens in these markets on a stand-alone basis, will impact a whole region and/or the other side of the world. The stress indicators focus on these 12 markets.
	-	Globalisation is irreversible. Political and economic decisions in one part of the world impact trading partners and markets on the other side of the world. The stress indicators focus on changes in merchandise trading patterns, capital flows, risk premiums, spreads and so on.
	-	Global central bank dependencies and more harmonised market regulation (Basel III/Solvency II) synchronises market behaviour, especially during times of stress
	-	Correlations between markets and regions are high, especially during a financial crisis. The “ALL IN or ALL OUT” signals focus on markets that are highly integrated.
	-	History repeats itself and is a reliable indicator.

Stress indicators